"citizens have one
comparatively hard bit of data: they know what life has been like during an incumbents administration".
Prospective Voting
A voter’s evaluation of a candidate based on what he pledges to do about an issue if elected
**
Voting Patterns
* the four time zones
can result in accurate predictions, however, the 2000 election and its time zones and the media coverage were questioned
Congressional Elections
*malapportionment*
a district could
be twice as large as the one next to it. They are unequal in size but….each
has its own representative
*gerrymandering*
lopsided majorities,
illegal isolation
*sophomore surge*
next time around,
a congressman is well known. The incumbency factor
**
The Presidency
"the
great prize"
*executive leadership
*prestige
*publicity
The coattail effect v backlash
Roosevelt 1932 coattail effect
Reagan 1980 (coattail by getting the
senate)
1986 - midterms loses it,
backlash because of Iran/Contra
Clinton wins in 1992
Dems control Exec and both houses
1994 – midterms
(backlash)
Clinton's job approval rating
unbelievable!
All through
Travelgate, Whitewater,
Haircut
Health Care, Govt
shutdown
impeachment inquiry
impeachment
*He was the first
Democrat since Roosevelt not to receive a major challenge as an incumbent
**
Another Viewpoint (voter realignment)
party realignment - A shifting of party coalition in the electorate
that remains in place for several elections
Political Scientists agree that they are
About thirty-six years apart
A critical election signals party realignment through voter polarization
around new issues
*Prior to the Civil
War. Whigs dissolving; the Republican Party is formed
*The Populist radicalization
of the
Democratic Party strengthened the Republican
*Voters repudiate
the Republican Party in favor of the Democrats in 1932
*Nixon winning as
a minority candidate as the Democratic Party splits (south/north)
*Reagan 1980 ? Southern Democrats dissatisfied with Jimmy Carter
*1994 ? Republican unseat Democrats in mid-terms control of both houses
*2006 midterms?
Secular realignments - Based on demographic
shifts to the political system
**
@
Presidential
Primaries and Conventions
Primary Election
Where candidates
are chosen by party members
1. Winner
–take – all Primary
winning the whole state with a plurality
Republican party favorite
(Democrats abandoned
this in 1976 in favor of proportional representation primary and eliminating unit rule or a thin majority)
Superdelegates –
are delegates to the Democratic National Convention who are elected party officials reason….stability
2. Proportional representation primary
You retain the percentage
won in the primary and add it to your tally
3. Proportional representation with bonus delegates added to each district
winner
4. The Caucus
party members meet in small groups throughout a state to
select the party’s delegates to the national convention
*Front Loading
the tendency of states to choose an early date
on the calendar to run their primary
*Regional Primary
A PROPOSAL to divide
country into six geographical districts where states in each region run their elections the same day
closed primary
- party registered voters pick candidates
open primary
- in some states, anyone can vote for candidates
Crossover voting
Participation in
primary by a non-affiliate
Raiding
An organized attempt
by voters of one party to influence the results of the other party
Blanket Primary
A primary in which
voters may cast ballots in [either party’s primary but not both. Can do
it on a office to office basis
Runoff Primary
A second primary
election between the two major vote getters of the first primary
Nonpartisan Primary
A primary used to
select candidates regardless of party affiliate
General Election
An election where
the voters select candidates to fill public office
VOTER REGISTRATION
Permanent registration –
a voter registers
once in his district
Periodic registration –
a voter registers
once a year
(North Dakota - no registration
@
Why is there voter apathy?
1960 – 62%
1996- 48.8%
Easier or no registration
= more voters
The
Electoral College - The means of choosing the American President
The
Framers felt that the common man wasn't qualified enough to elect a president. They
feared special interest and partisanship.
(System
seems archaic, was designed before our Dual Party System developed)
a) protection
against the tyranny of the majority
b) keep standards voting high
c) not totally in the hands of the states
however, the states are heard because we are a Republic, In a system of Federalism
Presidential
electors,
who
cast their votes in a Federal Election,
are
chosen by methods determined in each state.
State
Legislature/ party majority
Major defects of the
Electoral College process
1)
Winner take all theory, even if the vote is close in a specific state
2)
Not casting proper vote
3)
In a 3 party race, a candidate with a small percentage of the popular vote could be elected if he has support in the
House of Representatives
Amendments proposed
*Electoral
votes be cast by existing Congressional District.
bb*Awarding
the proper percentage to each candidate
Another method of reform
*
Same method of electoral votes
for each District (to be cast later)
*
Each district is a mini election
*
most district wins gets the ( +2 , senate)
*Tiebreaker
– Popular Vote for the (+2)
you
would feel that your candidate could win your district.
Encourages
participation
(They
would still have to cast their ballots on election day)
reinforces
1 man, 1 vote
Problem:
Amending process
Has
to pass through state legislatures ¾= 37 states
Maine and Nebraska
exceptions
Each
district has an elector and the state has 2 others over-all
Every
state could do this
(the Constitution permits it)
Problem:
The National Political Party’s Grip
on the respective Red and Blue States
*******************
