Chapter 14

 

Political Campaigns and Candidates

 

Nomination Campaign

The part of a political campaign aimed at winning an election

 

General Election Campaign

The part of a political campaign aimed at winning a general election

 

Personal Campaign

That part of a political campaign concerned with presenting the candidate’s public image

 

 

 

 

 

 

Organizational Campaign

The part of a political campaign involved in fund raising…not directly related to the candidate

 

Campaign manager;

political consultant;

Pollster;

finance chair;

direct mailer;

Voter canvass and the GOTV (get out to vote)

 

Media Campaign

The part of the campaign waged in the broadcast and print media

 

Paid media (advertisement)

Free media – coverage by newscasters

 

Waged Both Positive and Negative ads

          By and against the candidate

 

Spot ads – advertisement on behalf of a candidate that is broadcast on TV-Radio

 

Contrast ad – compares the records and proposals of the candidates

 

Inoculation ad – advertisement that anticipates the oppositions attack before it happens.

 

 

In a Presidential Election,

the incumbent has the advantage

 

 

1. The aura of the presidency

a president can achieve high ratings by acting Presidential

 

(Normal routine actions as the head of state)

 

*        Hail to the Chief

 

*        Presidential Seal

 

*        "Mr. President"

 

 

 

 

 

2. Awarding government contracts

Defense contracts to military industrialists may secure votes in certain key states

 

*        Large Federal Grants may flow to key primary states

 

3. Constantly campaigning

A President has the benefit of the Oval Office, Air Force One.

His speeches, actions and trips secure votes.  Every action of the President is calculated

 

*        a campaigning President must make presidential decisions, sometimes good; some bad

 

--->             In 1996, Nelson Polsby and

Aaron Wildavsky

 

Presidential Elections   

"campaigns do not function so much to change minds as to reinforce previous convictions"

 

1992 - 45% voters uncommitted

2004 – 12%

 

They are the key to any election

 

 

*        The public responds to political stimuli offered it

 

*        The behavior of voters is influenced by the issues of the day

 

 

"ticket-splitters" -

vote for the other party political candidates try to gain support of ticket-splitters

                                                             **

 

                                                             

                                                             

 

                                           *The route to candidacy*

                                                   "the primary"

 

                                             grueling, but necessary

 

Key States :                                        NY, CA, IL, OH, TX, MI, PA, FL

 

 

                                                                   ***

 

 

 

Incumbent Vice-Presidents have a difficult time shaking the image of their predecessor

 

 

Polsby and Wildavsky concur

"His is the most difficult strategic problem of all the candidates"

 

*        Sometimes positive;

(Reagan - Bush years)

 

*        Sometimes negative

(Hubert Humphrey)

 

 

                                                             **

 

 

 

 

 

 

Campaigns in American Politics

 

                                             TV and the Presidency

 

In 1976, Harold Mendelsohn and Garrett J. O'Keefe, The People Choose the President: Influences on Voter Decision Making

 

"Switchers" who change their minds during the course of a campaign and persons who make up their mind late in a campaign were more likely to be influenced by commercials

                                                   attention span?

 

 

*        Nixon's "Checkers" Speech

on receiving illegal campaign funding as a US Senator

 

"Back on the Ticket with Ike"

 

 

Dan Quayle - Murphy Brown

 "Potatoe"

 

 

 

Ross Perot

Used TV time to and Financial charts to disconnect himself from Washington politics

 

He unraveled, though, when he accused Bush of releasing pictures of his daughter; then recanted

 

Still - 19% of the popular vote

 

 

                                                             

 

1964 - LBJ v Barry Goldwater

"Daisy Girl" Commercial

 

"        We must learn to live together

              or we must die"

                                                             

 

*        McGovern/ Eagleton       -        1972

 

*        Bush (Iran-Contra)

Dan Quayle

 

Clinton - Draft status

Whitewater...etc..

 

 

 

 

**

                                     The Great Presidential Debate

 

Not always the tell-tale sign of which way the election will go, but sometimes it may

 

Kennedy v Nixon 1960

"missile gap"

 

*        Nixon the "Ogre"

          ill-dressed and visibly not ready

 

*        JFK – calm and visibly appealing

 

Ford v Carter 1976

Incumbent does not necessarily have to agree to debate but Carter up 33pts in poll

 

*USSR dominating Eastern Europe

 

Carter v Reagan 1980

Are you better off than you were four years ago (inflation)  Reagan the "actor" won

 

 

Reagan v Mondale 1984

 

At 73, Reagan made a few mistakes in the first debate and age became a question

 

2nd debate - Reagan

"I am not going to exploit for political purposes my opponents youth and inexperience"

 

Reagan doesn't make a mistake and wins the election easily!

 

Bush v Dukakis - 1988

Bush and abortion(not clear)

Dukakis labeled a liberal

 

Quayle v Bensten (VP debate)

 

 

Clinton v Bush - 1992

 

Bush hammered away at Clinton's avoidance of the draft and opposition of the war

 

Clinton countered

with charges of McCarthyism and Prescott Bush

 

Clinton - very articulate,

hammered away at the economy

 

 

Ross Perot- 3rd Party Candidate

 

 

Clinton v Dole - 1996

 

Both quite sharp and up to form.

 

Dole on trust; Clinton economy

 

Clinton's major advantage

his youth and the presidency

 

@

Their Consultants may “spin” the actual outcome of the debate

 

                                                             **

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                          ***

Campaign Financing

 

 

Watergate

Deep Throat - "follow the money"

 

Larry Sabato  

1996 comments on                     campaign reform